solar storm arrives : The first of several geomagnetic storms hit the globe this Friday, raising hopes for a bright Northern Lights display, and warning infrastructure operators of the potential electrical effects of the solar event.
The SWPC says the satellites observed conditions reaching level 5 on a 5-point scale of geomagnetic activity on Friday evening.
“We’ve notified all of our infrastructure operators that we talk to, such as satellite operators, communications people and, of course, the power grid in North America,” said SWPC Coordinator Shawn Dahl. “So they are able and willing to try to reduce the program as much as possible if it should unfold to the levels we currently expect.
But the most important of the strong geomagnetic events are the Northern Lights bright displays, which can travel much farther south than typical displays. SWPC says an aurora could be seen as far south as Alabama and northern California if the storm reaches forecast levels.
“This is a rare and potentially historic event,” the SPEC said Friday.
A history of Earth’s largest solar storms
Even in New Zealand, the sky has already lit up with incredible colors of bright reds, pinks, and purples as the first waves of the storm arrive in the dark.
On Thursday, the SPEC said it displayed the first “severe” geomagnetic storm watch since January 2005 and said the event was the strongest since Halloween 2003. And at the time, the solar program caused blackouts in Sweden and damaged the power grid in South Africa.
Sunspots merged
Another sunspot again bounced forceful CMEs this week and continues to be bustling. According to NOAA, the bulk of five CMEs will hit Earth in one swoop between Friday and Sunday afternoon.
“These two sunspot bunches are magnetically multifaceted and much greater than Earth. Together, they are regular sources of M-class flames (minor to moderate),” the Space Climate Prediction Center thought. “RGN 3664 (the consolidated sunspot region) remains to grow and increase in magnetic difficulty and has evolved into a high risk of bigger solar flare risk.”
How flares can set off geomagnetic storms
“When the sun shines, flares happen, and we see its radiation, and it’s like a muzzle flash,” George Mason University professor Peter Baker said in an earlier interview. “And formerly the cannonball is the coronal build ejection (CME). So, we can see the flash, but then the coronal mass ejection can go in some random direction in space, but we can tell when they’re actually going. Go toward Earth and those particles. It gives about 18 hours’ warning; maybe 24 hours’ warning, before it hits Earth and starts messing with the Earth’s magnetic field.”
NOAA has warned of a blackout of high frequency radio communications for several hours over a wide area. Geomagnetic storms can cause large voltage irregularities in power systems that trigger false alarms on security equipment, prevent satellites from orienting in low Earth orbit, and cause range errors and lock-ups for GPS systems.
Forecast: Will clouds obstruct my viewing of the aurora?
According to current forecasts, the storm could make landfall across North America late Friday through Saturday morning.
The Fox Forecast Center said skies looked clear across most of the northern US, with less than 10% cloud cover expected in the Midwest to Northwest. However, there will be cloud cover in the northeast.
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Forecasters estimate that these conditions last about 60 days in the 11-year solar cycle.
NOAA says scientists have seen only three serious geomagnetic storms since the solar cycle began in December 2019.
“The last (observed) severe geomagnetic storm remained on March 23, 2024, and the last extreme was the Halloween storm in October 2003,” SWPC said. “That G5 (extreme storm) caused power outages in Sweden and damaged power transformers in South Africa.”
X-class solar flares are the prime explosions in the solar system. According to NASA, the largest X-class flares can produce as much energy as 1 billion atomic bombs. M-class flares are the second-most powerful flares that can produce minor radiation storms and harm astronauts.
